A Novel Chronic Disease Policy Model

We develop a simulation tool to support policy-decisions about healthcare for chronic diseases in defined populations. Incident disease-cases are generated in-silico from an age-sex characterised general population using standard epidemiological approaches. A novel disease-treatment model then simulates continuous life courses for each patient using discrete event simulation. Ideally, the discrete event simulation model would be inferred from complete longitudinal healthcare data via a likelihood or Bayesian approach. Such data is seldom available for relevant populations, therefore an innovative approach to evidence synthesis is required. We propose a novel entropy-based approach to fit survival densities. This method provides a fully flexible way to incorporate the available information, which can be derived from arbitrary sources. Discrete event simulation then takes place on the fitted model using a competing hazards framework. The output is then used to help evaluate the potential impacts of policy options for a given population.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, 11 table

Research Objects: Towards Exchange and Reuse of Digital Knowledge

What will researchers be publishing in the future? Whilst there is little question that the Web will be the publication platform, as scholars move away from paper towards digital content, there is a need for mechanisms that support the production of self-contained units of knowledge and facilitate the publication, sharing and reuse of such entities. In this paper we discuss the notion of research objects, semantically rich aggregations of resources, that possess some scientifi?c intent or support some research objective. We present a number of principles that we expect such objects and their associated services to follow

Research Objects: Towards Exchange and Reuse of Digital Knowledge

What will researchers be publishing in the future? Whilst there is little question that the Web will be the publication platform, as scholars move away from paper towards digital content, there is a need for mechanisms that support the production of self-contained units of knowledge and facilitate the publication, sharing and reuse of such entities.

 In this paper we discuss the notion of _research objects_, semantically rich aggregations of resources, that can possess some scientific intent or support some research objective. We present a number of principles that we expect such objects and their associated services to follow

A review of the international Burn Injury Database (iBID) for England and Wales: descriptive analysis of burn injuries 2003-11

OBJECTIVE: To describe, for the first time, distribution (by geography, age, sex) and time trends in burn injury in England and Wales over the period that the international Burn Injury Database (iBID) has been in place. SETTING: Data from the iBID for the years 2003–2011 were used for a retrospective descriptive observational study of specialised services workload and admissions in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: All patients who have been visited or admitted to the burn injury specialised health service of England and Wales during the time period 2003–2011. Data cleaning was performed omitting patients with incomplete records (missingness never exceeded 5%). OUTCOME MEASURES: Workload, admissions, mortality, length of stay (LOS), geographical distribution, sex differences, age differences, total burn surface area, mechanism of Injury. RESULTS: During 2003–2011, 81 181 patients attended the specialised burn service for assessment and admission in England and Wales. Of these, 57 801 were admitted to the services. Males accounted for 63% of the total workload in specialised burn injury services, and females for 37%. The median (IQR) burn surface area was 1.5% (3.5%). The most frequent reason for burn injury was scald (38%). The median (IQR) age for all the referred workload for both genders was 21 (40). The overall mortality of the admitted patients was 1.51% and the median (IQR) LOS was 1 (5) days. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from burn injuries in England and Wales is decreasing in line with western world trends. There is an observed increase in admissions to burn services but that could be explained in various ways. These results are vital for service development and planning, as well as the development and monitoring of prevention strategies and for healthcare commissioning